#DRC – #Kinshasa on verge of winning its bet on the #Cobalt market
Fully focused on its goal of regulating the precious mineral sector, Félix Tshisekedi’s presidency expects significant fiscal returns this year. The authorities, however, have had to contend with pressure from Chinese operators eager to obtain larger quotas, as well as the reluctance of certain administrations.
Under the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is aggressively reshaping its role in the global mineral market, specifically targeting the cobalt and gold sectors to maximize state revenue and economic sovereignty.
Fiscal Returns and Strategic Control
For 2026, the Congolese Treasury has set ambitious financial targets tied to its newfound status as a market “price maker”.
- Projected Revenue: The government expects roughly $2.3 billion in public revenue this year from cobalt alone.
- Market Influence: By implementing a strict quota system (capped at 96,600 tonnes for 2026), Kinshasa successfully pushed prices from $21,000 in early 2025 to over $56,000 as of April 2026.
- Alternative Scenario: Authorities estimate that without these regulatory interventions, revenues would have been limited to approximately $617 million.
Friction with Chinese Operators
The administration is navigating complex relationships with Chinese mining companies, which currently dominate much of the DRC’s mineral extraction.
- Quota Resistance: Major Chinese firms, notably CMOC Group, have vocally opposed the 2026 quotas, arguing they are too restrictive compared to their production capacity.
- Processing Ultimatum: The Ministry of Mines is leveraging these quotas to force Chinese operators into local processing agreements, aiming to shift the country away from being a mere raw material exporter.
- Audit of Legacy Deals: In March 2026, the government launched a comprehensive technical and financial audit of the Sicomines “infrastructure-for-minerals” deal to ensure compliance and fair returns.
Administrative and Geopolitical Hurdles
Domestic and international pressures continue to complicate the regulatory rollout:
- Bureaucratic Reluctance: Delays in implementing new export procedures at the end of 2025 caused bottlenecks at key transit points like the Kasumbalesa border post, forcing the government to refine its administrative arrangements.
- The “U.S. Pivot”: Under a strategic partnership signed in late 2025, the U.S. is pushing for access to critical minerals to counter Chinese dominance. This includes a 44-project shortlist handed to Washington in February 2026, creating additional geopolitical friction.
- New Enforcement Measures: To counter administrative weakness, the state recently partnered with Quantum to establish a “tax brigade” for better oversight of mining operators.
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