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#Jakarta: #Coal and #Nickel dilemma: Racing for revenue, lagging in readiness

A silhouette of Indonesia features an industrial landscape on the left with smokestacks and an oil rig, and a renewable energy scene on the right with wind turbines. Road signs reading 'DEAD END' and 'Hope Ahead' are included.

A potentially widening budget deficit amid soaring global oil prices has prompted Jakarta to explore alternative revenue sources, including export duties on nickel and coal, commodities that are currently benefiting from relatively strong price trends.

The push for rapid revenue mobilization, however, appears to be running ahead of sectoral readiness. President Prabowo Subianto has approved a coal export duty, with tariffs reportedly still under discussion depending on price levels, initially slated for implementation on April 1. However, its rollout remains subject to ongoing cross-ministerial deliberations, particularly regarding its impact on mining sector profitability.

As highlighted by Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, the structure of Indonesia’s coal exports complicates policy design. Around 60-70 percent of exports consist of low-calorific, lower-value coal, meaning that a uniform export duty risks disproportionately burdening producers operating on thin margins. This has prompted the minister to adopt a more cautious stance, delaying implementation until a more calibrated approach is formulated. Yet this caution contrasts with parallel intervention on the supply side. The government has tightened production through the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) mechanism, capping approved output at around 580 million tonnes. This figure is well below the previous year’s realization of 790 million tonnes, aimed at preventing oversupply and supporting global prices.

The escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has helped sustain elevated energy and mineral commodity prices. Coal prices have remained consistently above US$135 per tonne, while nickel prices have also stayed relatively stable. This sustained price momentum has prompted the government to take strategic measures to safeguard the state budget. Export duty revenues in the 2026 state budget are projected to surge to Rp 42.56 trillion (US$2.5 billion), marking an increase of more than 850 percent. This sharp rise underscores the urgency behind recent policy initiatives.

This creates a fragmented policy mix. While fiscal authorities push for revenue mobilization through export duties, sectoral regulators simultaneously restrict output to stabilize prices. Rather than a fully coherent strategy, the current approach reflects an unresolved tension between short-term fiscal pressures and longer-term industrial and market considerations.

This tension becomes even more apparent when compared with the government’s more assertive stance in the nickel sector. The government is currently formulating an export duty on nickel-based products, particularly nickel pig iron (NPI), although the exact tariff structure and rates remain under deliberation. At the same time, supply-side controls have been introduced, with the nickel ore RKAB capped at around 150 million tonnes to safeguard domestic availability.

Read more at: https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2026/04/08/analysis-coal-and-nickel-dilemma-racing-for-revenue-lagging-in-readiness.html?utm_source=(direct)&utm_medium=single_latest

#DRC – #Kinshasa on verge of winning its bet on the #Cobalt market

Illustration of the Democratic Republic of the Congo highlighted on a map of Africa, featuring a mining scene with a mineral processing plant and various minerals like cobalt, copper, coltan, and lithium. The country's flag is prominently displayed.

Fully focused on its goal of regulating the precious mineral sector, Félix Tshisekedi’s presidency expects significant fiscal returns this year. The authorities, however, have had to contend with pressure from Chinese operators eager to obtain larger quotas, as well as the reluctance of certain administrations.

Read more at: https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2026/04/07/kinshasa-on-verge-of-winning-its-bet-on-the-cobalt-market,110698845-eve

Under the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is aggressively reshaping its role in the global mineral market, specifically targeting the cobalt and gold sectors to maximize state revenue and economic sovereignty. 

Fiscal Returns and Strategic Control 

For 2026, the Congolese Treasury has set ambitious financial targets tied to its newfound status as a market “price maker”. 

  • Projected Revenue: The government expects roughly $2.3 billion in public revenue this year from cobalt alone.
  • Market Influence: By implementing a strict quota system (capped at 96,600 tonnes for 2026), Kinshasa successfully pushed prices from $21,000 in early 2025 to over $56,000 as of April 2026.
  • Alternative Scenario: Authorities estimate that without these regulatory interventions, revenues would have been limited to approximately $617 million

Friction with Chinese Operators

The administration is navigating complex relationships with Chinese mining companies, which currently dominate much of the DRC’s mineral extraction. 

  • Quota Resistance: Major Chinese firms, notably CMOC Group, have vocally opposed the 2026 quotas, arguing they are too restrictive compared to their production capacity.
  • Processing Ultimatum: The Ministry of Mines is leveraging these quotas to force Chinese operators into local processing agreements, aiming to shift the country away from being a mere raw material exporter.
  • Audit of Legacy Deals: In March 2026, the government launched a comprehensive technical and financial audit of the Sicomines “infrastructure-for-minerals” deal to ensure compliance and fair returns. 

Administrative and Geopolitical Hurdles

Domestic and international pressures continue to complicate the regulatory rollout:

  • Bureaucratic Reluctance: Delays in implementing new export procedures at the end of 2025 caused bottlenecks at key transit points like the Kasumbalesa border post, forcing the government to refine its administrative arrangements.
  • The “U.S. Pivot”: Under a strategic partnership signed in late 2025, the U.S. is pushing for access to critical minerals to counter Chinese dominance. This includes a 44-project shortlist handed to Washington in February 2026, creating additional geopolitical friction.
  • New Enforcement Measures: To counter administrative weakness, the state recently partnered with Quantum to establish a “tax brigade” for better oversight of mining operators. 

#UN calls for fair play in the global race for #CriticalMinerals

United Nations Panel on Critical Mineral Sourcing featuring six panelists discussing critical minerals: graphite, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, with minerals displayed on the table.

UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals

On Thursday, the UN Security Council convened to discuss the links between energy, critical minerals, and global security. The discussion highlighted ongoing UN efforts to ensure that the transition to clean energy is both fair and inclusive.

Despite current geopolitical tensions, the global shift from a fossil-fuel-based economy to one powered by clean electricity continues to move forward.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)—an independent international body outside the UN system—demand for lithium increased by nearly 30 percent in 2024. Demand for nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements also rose by roughly 6–8 percent. This rapid growth is largely driven by the expansion of electric vehicles, battery production, and renewable energy technologies, all of which rely heavily on critical minerals.

Across the UN system—from the Secretary-General to multiple agencies and partners—efforts are underway to guide responsible mineral extraction and use. Through policy guidance, global meetings, and research reports, the UN aims to ensure that the benefits of the clean energy transition are shared broadly and support a low-carbon global economy.

Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals

In April 2024, UN Secretary-General António Guterres established the Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals to promote a transition that is just, equitable, and environmentally sustainable, while ensuring that countries and communities rich in these resources benefit fully.

Later that year, the panel published its first report, which Guterres described as a practical roadmap for achieving both prosperity and fairness alongside the growth of clean energy.

The report outlines strategies to ensure that the expansion of renewable energy is grounded in principles of justice and equity. It emphasizes sustainable development, respect for communities, environmental protection, and economic opportunities for developing countries with abundant mineral resources.

UN Guidance for Action on Critical Energy Transition Minerals

Released in June 2025, the UN’s guidance on critical energy transition minerals recommends policies to ensure that mineral extraction and use promote human rights, protect ecosystems, and support equitable development. The framework is built around three key principles:

Human rights at the centre. This includes conducting human rights due diligence, performing impact assessments, securing free, prior, and informed consent from affected communities, safeguarding civic space, and establishing effective grievance mechanisms.

Environmental protection and planetary integrity. The guidance calls for strong environmental and social impact assessments, biodiversity conservation, the designation of no-go zones, decarbonisation of mining activities, circular-economy approaches, and progressive mine-site restoration.

Justice and equity throughout the value chain. The framework stresses meaningful community participation, gender equality, the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples, and fair distribution of economic benefits.

A major development opportunity: UN trade agency

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) notes that surging demand for critical minerals is reshaping global economic and geopolitical dynamics. As a result, resource-rich developing countries are becoming increasingly central to emerging clean-energy supply chains.

UNCTAD describes the energy transition as a significant development opportunity for these countries. By shifting from exporting raw minerals to processing and adding value domestically, they can greatly increase their economic gains. For example, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, local cobalt processing helped raise export value from $167 million to $6 billion in 2022.

Environmental concerns: UN environment agency

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the rapid expansion of mineral production also carries serious environmental and social risks. UNEP calls for governance frameworks that cover the entire mineral value chain—not just mining sites—and for stronger international cooperation, transparent oversight, and collaboration among governments, industry, and communities.

Mining and mineral processing can lead to high greenhouse-gas emissions, biodiversity loss, pollution, and human rights violations, including impacts on Indigenous communities. In addition, supply shortages and tight markets can cause price volatility, heighten geopolitical tensions, and increase pressure to open mines in environmentally sensitive regions.

#China’s #RareEarth Policy: Driving Innovation and Competitiveness

A colorful assortment of various geometric and crystalline shapes representing critical minerals, displayed against a blurred laboratory background. The image also features the flag of China and text in Chinese and English labeling the minerals.

Policy Framework Supporting Innovation Ecosystem

The Chinese State Council’s “Rare Earth Industry Development Plan (2021-2025)” establishes coordinated targets that explicitly connect mining output with downstream technology milestones. This policy framework differs from market-driven approaches where private investment decisions occur independently of government industrial planning.

Key coordination mechanisms include:

  • Research funding allocation aligned with five-year industrial development priorities
  • State-owned enterprise operations integrated with private sector innovation incentives
  • Regulatory environments designed to support domestic technology development clusters
  • University-industry partnerships with explicit commercialization mandates

Government research institutes, including Chinese Academy of Sciences divisions focused on materials science, receive dedicated funding for rare earth materials research aligned with broader industrial objectives. This creates predictable resource flows for long-term research projects while ensuring alignment between fundamental research and commercial applications.

The integration extends to environmental and regulatory considerations. Chinese facilities operate under different environmental compliance requirements compared to Western competitors, enabling cost structures that support both current operations and reinvestment in technology development. Additionally, these operations increasingly benefit from decarbonization benefits that enhance long-term competitiveness. This regulatory environment, combined with established supply chains and vertical integration advantages, creates compound benefits for innovation funding.

How Does China’s Patent Strategy Create Competitive Moats in Critical Technologies?

Intellectual Property Accumulation in Emerging Materials

China’s patent filing activity in rare earth materials significantly exceeds Western competitors, with China accounting for approximately 40-50% of global rare earth materials patents and higher percentages in emerging technology areas including nanomaterials and energy storage applications, according to World Intellectual Property Organization data from 2023.

Patent applications in rare earth nanomaterials and energy storage categories have grown at approximately 15-20% year-over-year in China between 2018-2023, while Western filing rates in equivalent categories have remained relatively flat or declined. This divergence reflects different strategic approaches to materials innovation and intellectual property development.

Focus areas for Chinese patent activity include:

  • Energy storage nanomaterials with enhanced conductivity and thermal stability
  • Magnetic separation processes optimizing cost structures and efficiency
  • Luminescent compounds for specialized optical and sensor applications
  • Advanced alloy compositions targeting aerospace and electronics sectors

Consequently, organizations must develop comprehensive IP protection strategies to safeguard their technological advantages in this competitive landscape.

Research Institution Networks and Knowledge Transfer

Chinese university-industry collaboration operates under different structural incentives compared to Western academic systems. Chinese institutions receive explicit mandates to commercialize research findings, supported by government incentive structures that reward technology transfer activities. This contrasts with Western university systems where commercialization typically occurs post-publication through licensing offices, creating longer development timelines.

Read more at: https://discoveryalert.com.au/strategic-technology-development-critical-material-sectors-2026/

#Nigeria to open two #Chinese-backed #Lithium processing plants this year

Note: Canada is a resource-rich country. Canada does not have to go to another continent for critical mineral. Canada needs investment and technology development (refining and recycling). Bring the investment to Canada.

LAGOS, May 26 (Reuters) – Nigeria is set to commission two major lithium processing plants this year, the country’s mining minister announced on Sunday, marking a shift from raw mineral exports towards adding value domestically.

The facilities, largely funded by Chinese investors, could help transform Nigeria’s vast mineral wealth into jobs, technology, and manufacturing growth within the country. Mining Minister Dele Alake said a $600 million lithium processing plant near the Kaduna-Niger border is slated for commissioning this quarter, while a $200 million lithium refinery on the outskirts of Abuja is nearing completion. Two additional processing plants are expected in Nasarawa state, which borders the capital Abuja, before the third quarter of 2025, the minister said. “We are now focused on turning our mineral wealth into domestic economic value – jobs, technology, and manufacturing,” Alake said. Over 80% of the funding for the four facilities has been provided by Chinese firms, including Jiuling Lithium Mining Company and Canmax Technologies, according to separate announcements by governors of the states where the plants are located.

Read more at: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigeria-open-two-chinese-backed-lithium-processing-plants-this-year-2025-05-26/

Yes, Canada is considered a resource-rich country. It has abundant natural resources, including:

  1. Energy Resources:
    • Oil and Natural Gas: Canada has some of the largest reserves of oil in the world, particularly in the oil sands of Alberta. It is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, especially to the United States.
    • Hydroelectric Power: Canada is a leader in hydroelectricity production, with large dams and water resources, especially in provinces like Quebec and British Columbia.
  2. Minerals and Metals:
    • Gold, Silver, and Platinum: Canada has significant reserves of precious metals, making it one of the largest producers of gold and other precious metals.
    • Nickel, Copper, and Zinc: The country is a leading producer of these metals, which are essential for various industries, including manufacturing and electronics.
    • Uranium: Canada is one of the world’s top producers of uranium, used in nuclear power generation.
  3. Forests:
    • Canada has vast forest resources, making it one of the largest producers of timber and paper products. The forest industry is especially important in provinces like British Columbia and Quebec.
  4. Agricultural Resources:
    • Canada is a major producer of wheat, canola, and other crops. It also has extensive livestock farming, including cattle and poultry.
  5. Freshwater:
    • Canada holds around 20% of the world’s freshwater supply, making it an important resource for both domestic use and potential global trade.

These resources contribute significantly to Canada’s economy, especially through exports, and help maintain its position as one of the world’s wealthiest nations in terms of natural wealth

Why #Greenland? not #Mountainpass, #California for #RareEarth elements?

North Americans and Europeans need reliable processes to refine both light and heavy rare earth metals.

The processes currently available in North American and Europe to refine light and heavy rare earth elements do not meet the economic and environmental standard.

Prior to going into mining in unexplored part of the world:

1. We need immediate research and development to improve the existing technologies.

2. Build refineries in the existing mines with infrastructure using developed technologies.

3. Take the price control of the Rare Earth Elements by tariffs or other means until the local refineries optimize the refining processes and operating cost.

We do not want to send the concentrate to another country to do final refining.

Process Development:

“Two different rare earth elements may be fractions of an angstrom different in diameter — that means it’s very difficult to separate using physical means. The processes that are used right now … can be 100 steps,” Chrisey said, also noting that the procedure can be very expensive and environmentally hazardous due to the chemicals used to separate and purify the metals.

U.S. Begins Forging Rare Earth Supply Chain

Molycorp was struggling to stay solvent. Those new innovative technologies? They didn’t generate significant revenue or work as designed. By 2013, the company’s revenues were in free fall.

Molycorp’s most profitable assets being transferred to Chinese-linked Neo Materials, where he formerly served as CEO. Molycorp’s final remaining husk declared bankruptcy in 2014. Unsurprisingly, the majority of Neo Materials’ revenue-producing operations are now in China. To make matters worse, the Mountain Pass mine was purchased out of bankruptcy by a consortium that included a Chinese-owned firm.

Mountain Pass was now sending U.S.-mined rare earth concentrate to China for processing. The dream of a one-stop American rare earths solution was over, and the private sector had little appetite for reviving it.

Crucial innovation is also needed to break China’s stranglehold on the sector without sacrificing environmental quality, industry analysts said, with concerns over current processes’ toxic waste impeding projects.

The collapse of American rare earth mining — and lessons learned

Technical complexities, partnership strains and pollution concerns are hampering companies’ ability to wrest market share away from China, which according to the International Energy Agency controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity.

Late last year, U.S.-based MP said it was commissioning refining equipment near its California mine as part of an intricate calibration process that has so far not succeeded, leaving the company reliant on China for refining and thus nearly all of its revenue. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/world-battles-loosen-chinas-grip-vital-rare-earths-clean-energy-transition-2023-08-02/

Rare Earth Reserve:

1.China – Rare earths reserves: 44 million metric tons

2. Brazil – Rare earths reserves: 21 million metric tons

3. India – Rare earths reserves: 6.9 million metric tons

4. Australia – Rare earths reserves: 5.7 million metric tons

5. Russia – Rare earths reserves: 3.8 million metric tons

6. Vietnam – Rare earths reserves: 3.5 million metric tons

7. United States – Rare earths reserves: 1.9 million metric tons

8. Greenland – Rare earths reserves: 1.5 million metric tons

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-reserves-country/

The town of Mountain Pass, California, is home to the largest rare-earth element mine in the U.S. Its story began in the 1940s, when prospectors went searching for uranium.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151085/mountain-pass-rare-earth-mine

 The U.S. contains potential sources for many of them, and powerful voices in politics and business insist that the country must exploit them. But despite skyrocketing demand for the energy-critical elements, would-be domestic producers just can’t compete with global forces. This then is a story of comprehensive failure — but not the obvious one. Molycorp’s impending demise reflects failure by politicians and the media to understand how weak China’s grip on the metals market really is, and failure by Wall Street to understand the most basic dynamics of supply and demand, and failure by Silicon Valley to distinguish between hype and hard numbers.

Why rare-earth mining in the West is a bust – High Country News

Price Control:

China’s refining expertise has allowed the country to engineer rare earths prices at different stages in the processing chains to its advantage, including low prices for finished products, to inhibit foreign competition.

Beijing for years has allowed imports of lightly processed rock known as rare earths concentrate for refining. The strategy helps ensure prices that incentivize other countries to dig new mines but not build processing plants.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/world-battles-loosen-chinas-grip-vital-rare-earths-clean-energy-transition-2023-08-02/

China plans to prohibit non-state companies from mining rare earths, further tightening its control over a strategic sector that has emerged as a battleground in its trade war with the US. The government said only large state-owned groups can mine, smelt or separate the minerals and proposed banning private firms from the activities, according to draft rules issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/china-to-tighten-grip-on-rare-earth-mining-for-non-state-firms

#China to regulate #Lithium-ion battery industry amid fast expansion

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Wednesday issued new guidelines for its lithium-ion battery industry, aiming to transform, upgrade and promote high-quality development amid rapid expansion in the sector.

The guidelines, following a proposal in May, will help firms scale back manufacturing projects that only expand production capacity, while enhancing technology innovation and product quality and trimming output costs, the ministry said.

Projects built on farmland and ecological zones would be required to be shut down, or strictly reined in and gradually removed.

Rapid expansion of production capacity along the lithium battery supply chain has led to a plunge in prices for products, including battery and raw materials, eroding companies’ profits in the world’s biggest market.

Industry planning and launch of new projects should be in line with national development of resources, ecological protection and energy saving management, the ministry said.

Read more at: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-regulate-lithium-ion-battery-industry-amid-fast-expansion-2024-06-19/