Will we have enough #Nickel for our #EVs in 2030?
Historically, close to 70 per cent of refined nickel went into the manufacturing of stainless steel. In recent years, demand for nickel has been shifting to its use in EV batteries. Electric-vehicle battery demand now accounts for 5 per cent of overall nickel production. A typical 60-kilowatt-hour EV battery contains 40 to 50 kilograms of nickel. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, EVs will make up between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of new vehicle sales in 2030. In China, EV demand is projected to be similar.
Current global vehicle sales are in the 70 million to 80 million range. Using the 40-per-cent EV sales estimate, we would forecast total sales of 35 million electric vehicles by 2030. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimates EV sales will then be around 45 million vehicles annually.
With the 40 to 50 kilograms of nickel per vehicle estimate, we would require between 1.5 million and two million tonnes of nickel annually for these EVs. Mining Weekly sees nickel output likely to reach 3.8 million tonnes in 2030. Brazilian mining company Vale SA sees demand as high as 6.2 million tonnes by 2030.
In the short term, increased Indonesian production, a slow Chinese reopening and recession fears are dampening the price of nickel. Looking further out, demand from EVs and other climate targets will cause a constrained supply that will require substantial price increases or a shift in technology.
Read more at: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-will-we-have-enough-nickel-for-our-evs-in-2030/