#Pentagon plans #AI-based program to estimate prices for critical minerals
The US Department of Defense plans to develop a program to estimate prices and predict supplies of nickel, cobalt and other critical minerals, a move aimed at boosting market transparency but one that throws a new, uncertain variable into global metals markets.
The program, which received little attention after it was announced on a Pentagon website in October, is part of Washington’s broader efforts to jumpstart US production of critical minerals used in weapons manufacturing and the energy transition.
US output lags market leader China partly because attempts to build new American mines can be heavily influenced by commodity price swings.
The Pentagon’s work is being run by its Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) division, which was formed in response to the Soviet Union’s 1957 launch of the Sputnik 1 satellite and helped develop the Internet and the mRNA vaccine for Covid-19.
DARPA and the US Geological Survey plan to hire one or more private contractors to develop an artificial intelligence-backed model that would construct a metal’s “structural price” based on where and when it is produced, as well as labor, supply and other costs, according to documents seen by Reuters that describe the program, including a slide deck that DARPA presented last November to prospective contractors.
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